In order to make good predictions for the future, we must first look back at some history. If we take a deeper dive into some Fantasy Football stats from the past, we can get a better understanding of what each player might do in the upcoming season. As I have mentioned in previous articles, we want to focus on the more recent past, as the NFL is always evolving. If you go too far back, the information becomes less relevant. When I look for trends, I’ll look back as far as the past 5 years, but when I’m looking at stats to help me decide on a specific player to draft, I’m only going to use the past 3 years.
Quarterbacks
Often, it’s worth looking for a team that had a big wide receiver acquisition, to boost the quarterback’s numbers. Let’s use Josh Allen for example. If I’m making a list of quarterbacks in ranking order, right now, I’m putting Josh Allen #1. Allen is right around 24 average fantasy points per game, every year, since 2020, when the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs. While in 2019, Allen only averaged 18 FPts/G (fantasy points per game), and 17 in 2018, his rookie year.
Jalen Hurts is also another perfect example. Although his fantasy production had already significantly increased in 2021, to 20.8 average FPts/G, from a mere 7.2 in his rookie campaign of 2020, Hurts made a huge leap in 2022, when the Eagles made the trade for A.J. Brown. Hurts jumped up to a whopping 25.2 average FPts/G, and remains close to the same kind of production through 12 games in 2023! I’m putting Hurts #2 on my ranking list.
On the flip side, the quarterback who just lost that big wide receiver, might significantly drop in fantasy production. Let’s use Patrick Mahomes for example. In 2022, Mahomes lost his biggest target in Tyreek Hill, to the Miami Dolphins. Being one of the best quarterbacks in the game right now, Mahomes still managed to have a highly productive year in 2022, with 24.5 average FPts/G, but has fallen off a bit in 2023. He’s ranked 8th among quarterbacks, only averaging 18.5 FPts/G, and seems to be missing his go to target in Hill. While Mahomes is certainly still a serviceable fantasy quarterback, it looks like until he gets an upgrade in his receiving corp, he’s out of the top 5 in rankings.
The dual threat quarterback is the fantasy owner’s delight. Part of the reason both Allen and Hurts lead the way in fantasy points, is because they rack up a good amount of rushing yards, and rushing TDs. Even if a quarterback doesn’t have designed runs for them, as is the case with both Allen and Hurts, quarterbacks who can extend a play with their legs, can rack up some fantasy points, in doing so. In 2022, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Fields both finished in the top 5 in total fantasy points, and average FPts/G. Both of these quarterbacks will take off running if they can’t find an open receiver.
Running Backs
Similarly to quarterbacks, the running backs that can be a dual threat, in both the running game, and the receiving game, are the big fantasy point scorers. Through the first 12 games of the 2023 season, Christian McCaffrey is averaging just over 20 FPts/G, leading the way in fantasy points for non quarterbacks. He has already accumulated 429 receiving yards, and 5 receiving TDs, bolstering his fantasy point total and average. Guys like Alvin Kamara, with 413 receiving yards through 9 games, and Travis Etienne, with 346 receiving yards through 12 games, are both in the top 5, for running back average FPts/G.
In 2022, both Austin Ekeler and McCaffrey recorded over 700 receiving yards, and 5 receiving TDs, respectively. Both of these running backs were in the top 5, for running back average FPts/G, and total fantasy points. Ekeler had 641 receiving yards and 8 receiving TDs, in 2021, and was in the top 3 for both total fantasy points, and average FPts/G.
Taking a running back like McCaffrey or Ekeler, for your 1st pick in your fantasy draft, is always a good bet. The only draw back from these two, is that they are both a little bit smaller, and have had some injuries, keeping them from being able to play in multiple games.
Maybe it’s worth considering a different kind of RB as well.
The days of a running back carrying the ball 400+ times a season, are long gone, but some teams will still use just one running back for the bulk of the running back touches. The more touches a running back gets, the more opportunities for fantasy points he gets. In 2022, Josh Jacobs led all running backs in total fantasy points, with 275. He was 2nd in average FPts/G, with 16.2. He had a total of 340 total rushing attempts, and 53 receptions to add to that. That is a total of 393 touches! Derrick Henry was 3rd in total fantasy points among running backs, and 1st in average FPts/G, with 16.9. He had a total of 349 rushing attempts, and 33 receptions to add to that, for a total of 382 touches. Backs like Henry, Jacobs, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley, when healthy, have all been featured backs on their prospective teams, and get a high volume of touches, which means top fantasy point scores.
These are also the kinds of RBs that are worth taking 1st and/or 2nd pick in your fantasy draft.
Wide Receivers
Even though the NFL is considered to be pass happy these days, the wide receivers are still just slightly behind the RBs in fantasy points, both in totals and averages. That’s because wide receivers generally don’t get the amount of touches a featured running back does.
When choosing your wide receivers to draft, remember the top 15 ranked, through the years, are all within a point or two in average FPts/G.
Through 12 games of the 2023 season, Tyreek Hill is having a monster season, averaging 18.3 FPts/G! After that, you go from CeeDee Lamb, 2nd, at 14.6 average FPts/G, to 15th ranked Tank Dell, averaging right around 11 fantasy points per game.
In 2022, fantasy points had even less discrepancy between wide receivers. Justin Jefferson led the pack with 14.2 average FPts/G, while 15th ranked DeAndre Hopkins averaged right about 10 fantasy points per game.
In 2021, Cooper Kupp had that incredible season of 17.3 average fantasy points per game, with Deebo Samuel close behind, averaging 16.4 FPts/G. Then 3rd ranked Davante Adams, had an average of 13.8 FPts/G, and was only separated by 15th ranked Chris Godwin, by just a few FPts/G.
If you land #6 or later, in your draft, It can be worth trying to land one of these top WRs, but it’s also not a bad idea to get 2 of those top RBs first, then draft a WR in the 3rd, as the FPts/G does not decrease by much with the WRs ranked around 10-15.
Tight Ends
In 2020, Travis Kelce just went nuts, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game! He was great again in 2022, when he averaged 12.1 FPts/G. He was ranked 2nd among TEs in 2021, with an average of 10.7 FPts/G, and is leading the pack in 2023, through 12 games, averaging 9.9 FPts/G. So it would seem logical to draft Kelce early in the draft. If you look deeper that the statistics, though, even his amazing 2020 campaign, he only ranked 9th, among non quarterback positions, in average FPts/G . Whereas, the next year, in 2021, he came in 34th, among non quarterback positions, in average FPts/G. So, you’re taking quite a risk, drafting him anywhere less than the 3rd round. Every draft I’ve been in, over the coarse of the past 5 years+, there is a fantasy owner drafting Kelce in the 1st or 2nd round, figuring they just drafted the best TE in the league. That may very well be true, but there are a plethora of RBs and WRs who will out preform him in average FPts/G.
Over the past 5 years, You’ve got your top 2 or 3 TEs, in average FPts/G, and you’ve got the rest of the TEs. Along with Kelce, there’s Mark Andrews, who led all TEs in average FPts/G with 11.4. There are also the likes of George Kittle, and T.J. Hockenson, who have also been in the top 5 in average FPts/G, over the past few years.
In 2022, 4th ranked TE Hockenson, averaged 7.6 FPts/G, yet only averaged a couple more FPts/G than 15th ranked Pat Freiermuth. So you’re not losing out on much waiting until later rounds to draft a TE. Not to mention Hockenson only ranked 81st in average FPts/G, among non quarterback positions.
So, What’s The Plan?
Obviously no one can tell you exactly who to pick throughout your draft, but hopefully some of this information can help you go into it with a game plan of which positions you’ll focus on in each round, and have a better idea what round might be appropriate for individual players.
If you have any other questions regarding this article, and how it can be useful for your fantasy team, please leave me a comment below. Have a happy Fantasy Football Season!