Top Rookies Drafted in Fantasy Football-A Look Through The Years

A big part of success within the Fantasy Football world, is to look for trends. Every year, there are a multitude of rookies coming into the NFL, with aspirations of making an impact on the success of their prospective teams, also having high expectations from the fans to bring home the victory. So how does that translate to fantasy points? Should Fantasy Football owners look to draft these rookies? Let’s take a look at the past couple of years…

Rookies Quarterbacks.

In 2023, Bryce Young was drafted number one, over all, in the NFL draft, by the Carolina Panthers. The jury is still out on whether Young will be a great QB in the NFL or not, but as far as fantasy points go, his rookie campaign was little to be desired. After 14 games, Young was ranked 40th among all QBs in average FPts/G (Fantasy Points Per Game) at 9.8, with a total of 127 fantasy points, ranking him 25th among all QBs.

If you have 10-12 fantasy owners in your league, Young wouldn’t even be worth keeping as a back up quarterback on your roster.

On the contrary, C.J. Stroud was drafted 2nd over all in the 2023 NFL draft, by the Houston Texans. Through 14 games of his own, Stroud was ranked 7th among all QBs in average FPts/G, at 18.6 and had 241 total fantasy points, which ranked him #10 among all QBs, ahead of the likes of Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa. Stroud is very much an outlier though, with his QB success in his rookie season.

I don’t think either of these top 2 NFL drafted QBs were high on the radar of any fantasy owners, going into their fantasy draft, but I’m sure there were plenty of owners looking to take a risk on either of these two QBs in the very late rounds of their fantasy draft.

Anthony Richardson was another quarterback, that fantasy owners might have been willing to take a chance on in the later rounds of their fantasy draft. Richardson was drafted with the 4th pick of the 2023 NFL draft, by the Indianapolis Colts. He was terrific in week 4, scoring 29.6 fantasy points. Unfortunately, the following week, Richardson was injured, ending his season.

In the 2nd round of the 2023 NFL draft, the Tennessee Titans took Will Levis. The Titans were planning on starting Ryan Tannehill at the beginning of the season, and had drafted Malik Willis the year before, so I’m not sure anyone was planning on seeing Levis get any action in 2023. Levis did make his way to the starting role in Tennessee, starting in week 8. Through 8 games played, he ranked 27th in average FPts/G at 12.9, among all QBs. So, like Young, Levis has no value in Fantasy Football, his rookie year.

2022 was an unusually weak draft for quarterbacks, and there was very little expectations for that year’s rookie class. Brock Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL draft, got a chance to start for the San Francisco 49ers in week 13. Purdy finished his rookie season in great fashion as an NFL quarterback. In fantasy, Purdy averaged just over 18 FPts/G among all QBs, respectively.

2021, on the other hand, was loaded with expectations for quarterbacks, coming out of the NFL draft. The top 3 overall picks were all quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence #1, to Jacksonville, Zach Wilson #2, to the NY Jets, and Trey Lance #3, to San Francisco. Justin Fields was taken a little later at #11, to Chicago, and then just a few picks later, New England selected Mac Jones at #15. All five quarterbacks were going to be asked to lead their teams to high levels of success.

2 years later, we have a little better idea of how these 5 quarterback’s careers will probably go, but for this article, we’re focusing on how they did as rookies, in fantasy terms.

Mac Jones actually led the group, playing in all 17 games in 2021, averaging 13.2 FPts/G, which ranked 29th among all QBs, and a total of 225 fantasy points, ranking 18th among all QBs.

Trevor Lawrence was the only other of the 5, to play all 17 games in 2021. He only averaged 11.7 FPts/G, ranking him 37th among all QBs. He managed to score a total of 199 fantasy points, which ranked him #23, among all QBs.

As for Wilson, Lance and Fields, all 3 of their seasons didn’t even go as well as Jones’ or Lawrence’s. In Fantasy Football, they had little to no value for fantasy owners.

The quarterback position is an incredibly difficult position to learn, and play in the NFL. Therefore, For the majority of the time, rookie quarterbacks are not worth a roster spot on your fantasy team.

Rookie Running backs.

Rookie running backs are a little bit different than rookie quarterbacks. There have been some running backs that make a splash in fantasy, their rookie season. Some have high expectations from fantasy owners, before the draft. Some, we don’t discover until a number of games into the season.

In 2023, Bijan Robinson was the first RB selected in the NFL draft, by the Atlanta Falcons, at #8 overall, followed by Jahmyr Gibbs at #12, to the Detroit Lions.

After 14 games, Gibbs has been the more productive of the two backs, averaging 13.1 FPts/G, which ranks 8th among RBs. He has a total of 156 fantasy points, in 12 games played, ranking him 9th among RBs. This makes Gibbs worthy of a 2nd to 3rd round draft pick, in fantasy drafts.

Robinson has been quite productive himself, amassing 148 total fantasy points, in 14 games, ranking him 12th, among RBs. Robinson has actually played in all 14 games, so his average is slightly lower than Gibbs at 10.6 FPts/G respectively. Fantasy owners having picked him in the 3rd round or later have to be happy with his contributions.

Devon Achane was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL draft by the Miami Dolphins. Achane did not go into fantasy drafts with the same expectations as Robinson or Gibbs. If fact, most fantasy drafts finished without Achane even being drafted at all.

In week 3, the Denver Broncos came to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, for the Dolphin’s first home game of the regular season. Achane rushed for 203 yards, 2 rushing TDs, and had 2 receiving TDs as well, to give him 47 total fantasy points, in non PPR (points per reception) leagues! Of course every fantasy owner across America was clamoring to pick up Achane off the waiver wire after that performance! Unfortunately, after 2 more weeks of huge fantasy production, Achane’s success was derailed by injury and he didn’t play significant snaps again until week 13, in the Nation’s capital, against the Commanders. The dolphins won that game, and Achane had another incredible fantasy numbers day, scoring 22 total fantasy points on 103 total yards and 2 TDs.

The 2022 NFL draft was loaded with running backs making a big splash a year later. But how did any of them fair as rookies?

Breece Hall was the 1st RB off the board of the 2022 NFL draft. Hall was selected by the NY Jets, with the 4th pick of the 2nd round. Hall took a few weeks to get going, but in week 4, he scored his first TD, and then scored a TD in 3 more weeks consecutively. In that 4 week stretch, Hall racked up some nice fantasy points, week 5 being his best, when he ran for 197 total yards and a TD, scoring over 25 fantasy points. Unfortunately, two weeks later, he sustained an injury that would end his season.

Kenneth Walker III was drafted just a few picks after Hall, being selected 9th in the 2nd round, by the Seattle Seahawks.

Walker took a few weeks to settle in, just as Hall did, but was able to play the entire season in 2022, where he finished 15th among RBs with a total of 175 fantasy points, and 12th in average FPts/G at 11.7.

Both Hall and Walker were drafted in most fantasy leagues, in the late rounds.

The later rounds of the 2022 NFL draft included RBs, James Cook, Jerome Ford, and Kyren Williams, who are all scoring some decent fantasy numbers in 2023, but all had very little fantasy production their rookie seasons.

There were also RBs drafted in the later rounds of the 2022 NFL draft like Rachaad White, Brian Robinson Jr., Dameon Pierce, Tyler Algeier, and Isiah Pacheco, who have all been respectable in their 2nd year, in fantasy, in 2023. All had some short stretches of good fantasy production in 2022, but for one reason or another, they all had limited amount of weeks, in which they were given opportunity to handle the ball much. Most of them, not playing significantly until late into their rookie season.

The duration of an NFL season is longer, and far more rigorous, than any college season. Most rookie RBs haven’t developed the strength and endurance yet, to take on a full work load, all season long.

Rookie Wide Receivers.

There were a total of 8 wide receivers drafted in the first 2 rounds of the 2023 NFL draft. At least 5 of them had the expectations from their teams and fans, to make an immediate impact in the offense of their prospective teams. How does that translate to fantasy value?

Puka Nacua jumped into that roll immediately with the Los Angeles Rams. He wasn’t drafted until the 5th round of the NFL draft, but showed he belonged with the pros, right out the gate, when he hauled in 10 of his 15 targets, for 119 yards in his 1st professional regular season game! He followed that up in week 2, with 20 targets, 15 of them being caught for 147 yards! Nacua continued to excel, even after week 5, when his counter part superstar, Cooper Kupp, returned to the line up after recovering from injury. After 14 games played, Nacua ranked 11th in total fantasy points with 145, and 16th in average FPts/G, with 10.4.

First round wide receiver selections in the 2023 NFL draft included Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison.

The first WR off the board, in the 2023 NFL draft, was Smith-Njigba to the Seattle Seahawks. Smith-Njigba was selected #20 overall, and hasn’t produced much for fantasy numbers yet, making him unworthy of a fantasy roster spot.

Once Smith-Njigba was drafted, the other 3 WRs went consecutively after him. Johnston was next, going to the LA Chargers, and has yet to make much of an impact in his offense.

3rd was Flowers, selected by the Baltimore Ravens. After 14 games played in the 2023 season, Flowers is ranked 33rd in total fantasy points, with only 99.6. His lower fantasy point production is mainly due to the fact that he only has 3 TDs all year.

Directly after Flowers, was Addison, who has been the most productive of the 4 WRs drafted in the first round. Like Nacua, Addison has a superstar WR counter part, in Justin Jefferson. Addison’s targets did increase slightly, when Jefferson went down due to injury, which might account slightly to his solid fantasy numbers. After 14 games of the 2023 NFL season, Addison is ranked 13th in total fantasy points among WRs, with 136, and is ranked 18th among WRs in FPts/G, with 9.8.

Other 2nd and 3rd round WR selections in the 2023 NFL draft, with sporadic fantasy success, were 22nd ranked Jayden Reed at 121 total fantasy points, 24th ranked Tank Dell at 118 total fantasy points, and 26th ranked Rashee Rice at 115 total fantasy points. Even though these WRs are bench guys, they’re worthy of a roster spot. I wouldn’t be surprised at all, though, to see good fantasy production from from these 3 in 2024!

The WR class of 2022 is yet to show that any of them are worth starting on a fantasy roster. There was certainly high expectations, as 6 WRs were selected in the 1st round. Drake London at #8 and Garrett Wilson at #10 are still trying to live up to those expectations. Chris Olave, was the 3rd WR drafted at #11 overall, has shown some promise, but nothing very consistent. He finished his 2022 rookie campaign 21st among WRs in total fantasy points, with 126 and 27th in average FPts/G, at 8.9. His 2023 season being very similar, through 14 games of the season.

What do the numbers teach us?

The percentage of rookies that will make a big impact on a fantasy roster, is quite small. There may be 1-2 rookie RBs and WRs that are worth having on a fantasy roster, but I would recommend waiting until later rounds of your draft, to take a risk on one. Rookie quarterbacks being impactful on a fantasy roster is even more rare. Definitely keep an eye on emerging rookies, though. Every year, some rookies explodes onto the scene, some weeks into the season, who often had been heard of very little.

I hope this article sheds some light on the impact rookies have in the Fantasy Football world. If you have any questions, or comments, please feel free to leave me a note below.

Good luck with your next Fantasy Football season!