Your Fantasy Football draft is approaching, but you’re not sure who to pick. I would suggest obtaining a ranking list from a magazine, or some kind of reliable source. This will at least give you a rough idea of who the top fantasy players are considered to be. Ideally, you’ve been able to do at least a little research on the top 50, or more, players projected. Aside from that, you want to go into the draft with a game plan. Below I have provided some statistically backed strategies to help you have a plan in place, and make the most of your draft.
Does It Matter Where I Draft?
In order to try to make a draft as fair as possible, the snake draft method is used. In other words, if you have 12 fantasy owners in your league, you would draft 1-12, then 12 back to 1 and then1-12 again, and so on. Pick numbers 1 and 12 will always have two picks in a row, other than the number one’s first pick. If you end up on the back end of the drafting order, you’ll get another pick soon after. Meanwhile, if you end up drafting in the first few picks, you’ll end up waiting a while before you get another selection, but then have another pick come back to you shortly. So you should be able to draft just as solid of a team as anyone, regardless of where you are, in the draft order. Since the order in which owners are drafting is completely random, the key to success is to be prepared to draft at any number in the order.
Draft The Best Players Available In Early Rounds.
The quarterbacks almost always have the highest fantasy point totals on every fantasy team, every week. So you should totally go for a quarterback in the first round then, right? Wrong! Unless your league is formatted to have 2 quarterbacks in the starting lineup. Then you most definitely would. In most standard leagues, though, you only have 1 quarterback in your starting lineup. If we are going by standard league formats, aside from your 1 quarterback, you will also need to fill 2 running back slots, 2 wide receiver slots, and a flex position slot, which can be your choice of a running back, wide receiver, or tight end. You are going to want to start working on filling one of those 5 positions, right off the bat. I would like to use the past 5 years of fantasy statistical leaders (2018-2022) for the duration of this article, to provide some insight. If you go further back then 5 years, those stats become less relevant, due to the constant evolution of the game. So, over those past 5 years, on average, 15 of the top 20 fantasy point leaders are quarterbacks. 17 quarterbacks being a high in 2020, and 14 quarterbacks being a low in 2022, and either 9 or 10 of the top 10 fantasy point leaders are quarterbacks, each year. This may look like picking a quarterback first is the logical thing to do, but let’s look a little closer. Those quarterbacks are averaging around 18-25 fantasy points per game. Where the top 20 running backs are averaging around 11-21 fantasy points per game, and the top 20 wide receivers are averaging around 10-16 fantasy points per game. If you do some quick math, on average, 2 of those top non quarterback players combined, are averaging more fantasy points, than just 1 quarterback. Your running backs and wider receivers are only averaging a little less points per game then the quarterbacks, and you need 2 of each, for each position slot, in your starting lineup. So you’ll want to start with one of those positions first. Even if you are drafting at number 12, and everyone in your league decided they were going to draft a quarterback, which they wont, you would still be able to draft one of the top point scorers in the league in the quarterback position. Resist the temptation of drafting that superstar quarterback in the first round. There will be plenty of quarterbacks, with good value, still available to draft in the next few rounds.
Getting a Starting Lineup Established.
The running back continues to lead the pack for fantasy points, in non quarterback positions. In the top 4 or 5 picks of the draft, a running back is your best bet. Again, over the past 5 years, from 2018-2022, running backs are the only position breaking the top 20 fantasy point leaders. In 2021, wide receivers Cooper Kupp (ranked #3) and Deebo Samuel (ranked #13) broke the top 20 in total fantasy points, and in 2022, Justin Jefferson also did, ranking in at number 18. Those are the outliers though, and I would argue that those 3 had some of the greatest fantasy seasons for wide receivers, ever.
Once you get to around 6 -12 in the draft order, you want to go back to the “drafting the best player available” mindset. That might not be a running back, as was the case just illustrated in 2021, where Cooper Kupp finishing 3rd in total fantasy points. The only players to finish ahead of Kupp that year were quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes #1, and Mathew Stafford #2, Kupp’s quarterback). A Running back might still be a good option, depending on the players drafted ahead of your draft pick, but a top wide receiver very well might end up scoring more points for you, than a 7th or 8th ranked running back.
As you start to get through the first couple of rounds of the draft, you will want to keep track of the positions starting to fill up on your roster. If you take a running back your first pick, it wouldn’t be the end of the world to pick another running back in the second round, but you certainly would not want to pick yet another running back in the third round. In doing so, you would miss out on some of the top point scorers in other positions. Remember, you’ll have 2 wide receiver slots to fill, in which you must use wide receivers. You also have that quarterback position we resisted taking first, and a tight end. You want to try to balance out your strength throughout each position. 3 running backs in the first 3 rounds would make you very running back heavy, and weak in other positions. Chances are, if you have already taken 2 running backs, the remaining undrafted running backs will not be as high of fantasy point scorers as some of the other position players, such as a starting wide receiver.
Keep close track of all the players that have been drafted in each position already. In the 3rd round, you should have either the running back or wide receiver starting slots filled. It’s now time to look to 1 of 3 choices: One of the top ranked quarterbacks, an absolute top ranked tight end, or another running back or wide receiver (again, not a 3rd running back or wide receiver). There are some factors to consider when making this choice. If you missed out on one of the top 5 projected quarterbacks, or the top 2-3 projected tight ends, find another running back or wide receiver to draft. In the 5 years of statistics we are using (2018-2022), after quarterbacks, you will find almost exclusively running backs and wide receivers in the top 50 of fantasy points scored, so it makes since to grab another one here.
The 3rd round can also be a good place to look to snag your first quarterback. When we look at 2018-2022, every year has 4 to 5 quarterbacks who are going to score you a good 23-24 fantasy points, on average, per game. In 2022, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts all averaged 24-25 fantasy points. So if you think quarterbacks still available, are one of those top 3 or 4, grab one while you still can. There is not a significant drop off in fantasy points though, when you look at the next 5-8 ranked quarterbacks, through those 5 years. In 2022, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence all averaged close to 20 fantasy points per game. So don’t panic. You may end up with a quarterback only averaging more like 18-20 fantasy points per game, if you have to wait until the next round, but adding another top 50 running back or wide receiver, would now give you 3 players projected on average to score 10-18 fantasy points per game. Potentially scoring 50-60 fantasy points on average, for you, with just your first 3 players drafted. This is a good solid start to your draft. If you end up doing it this way, definitely look to draft a quarterback in the 4th round.
Only 1 tight end per year has cracked the top 50 in fantasy points scored, with the exception of 2020, where Travis Kelce ranked #30 and Darren Waller ranked #47. Kelce cracked the top 50, four out of the five years, (2018-2022) but never ranked higher than #30. Since Kelce is at the top of the tight end list year after year, fantasy owners often think it’s advantageous to draft him in rounds 1 or 2, subsequently missing out on a running back or wide receiver, who likely will score on average, a lot more fantasy points, on a week to week basis. Let’s not be one of those owners. If your league is filled with disciplined owners, who all resist the temptation to draft a tight end in the first 2 rounds, feel free to snag one of those top 2 projected tight ends in the 3rd round, if they are still available to draft. Assuming those top 2 tight ends will be off the board, wait until later in the draft where you will be able to get one of the slew of tight ends getting around the same fantasy point averages per game.
Build Depth.
The last thing you want to do, after staying disciplined in the first 4-5 rounds, sticking to your game plan, not getting distracted by temptations, is to start wasting picks on a kicker or team defense. Wait until the very late rounds for that. Mid rounds are to start adding depth to your roster, and again, best player available! Even though you may not have picked a tight end yet, this is the perfect time to load up on running backs and wide receivers. Start looking for a back up quarterback. Rounds 8-12 are a great place to look to get that done. As we already noted, most of the top 20 fantasy point leaders are quarterbacks. So there are still high value quarterbacks to be drafted in those later rounds. Also, within that 8-12 round area, you need to finally land 1-2 tight ends, if you didn’t get that top ranked tight end earlier. Ideally, you now have 4-5 running backs, 4-5 wide receivers, 2 quarterbacks, and 2 tight ends on your roster. Finally, rounds 13-15 are for landing a team defense and a kicker. In our example years of 2018-2022, both the kicker position and team defense have very little discrepancy in average fantasy points scored per week, from rankings 1-12.
Look To Improve Your Team Every Week.
The fun does not end at the draft. It’s now time to keep a close eye on the players on your roster. There will be injuries, byes, and poor performances, so you’ll need to know about them, and make necessary changes. This is where leagues are won and lost. Use the waiver wire to your advantage. Waivers become available at midnight on Tuesday, so create a claim earlier in the day, to get as high of a priority on a player as possible. Every year, there are a number of players that were not drafted, who break out, unexpectedly. You can drastically improve your roster if you are able to claim these players off the waiver wire. Make sure you are not just making moves to make moves, though. Every time you claim a player off the waiver wire, you drop in the priority list, so you may want to pass on a player you don’t really need, to keep your priority higher. When your priority is low, you will not be able to acquire that player who had a huge week, and everyone is clamoring to go acquire off waivers. If you feel you ended up weak in a position, after the draft, look to see if any other owners are especially strong in that position, and offer a trade. You may be strong in a position they are weak in, and it can be a win win for both parties.
I hope you find this article useful. Feel free to drop any questions about Fantasy Football in the comments below. Good luck and have a great season!