Comparing Fantasy Football Historical Data To Identify Trends

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Approaching a fantasy football season is like a meteorologist attempting to predict the weather. In this game of strategy and prediction, historical data can be the wind in the sails of the decision making process. Armed with figures from past seasons, fantasy owners can steer towards victory by discerning patterns that hint at a player’s future performance.

In fantasy football, the advantage goes to those who seem to know the future, due to a keen understanding of historical data. It’s more than just about choosing athletes based on their latest achievements. It’s about considering the trajectories that their careers are taking, informed by their statistical footprints over the years.

For example, consistently strong performances can indicate a reliable choice, whereas other players who shine one week and disappear the next, makes them a more risky selection. My aim here is not only to shine a light on the ‘hows’ and ‘whys’ of using historical data but also to unveil the tools and techniques to dissect this information, and provide practical insights.

Let’s examine the methods and metrics that are most effective for unearthing actionable trends. Remember, numbers don’t lie, but without the right analytical lens, their stories can be incomplete.

Diving into Data: Methods for Trend Analysis

To effectively compare historical data in fantasy football, you must know which statistics hold the most weight. Yards gained, touchdowns scored, receptions made, and games played are typical starting points. Beyond the basics, you can also look into targets, yards after catch (YAC), and consistency metrics such as fantasy points per game (FP/G) and standard deviation in performance.

Interpreting the data goes beyond just reading the numbers. It’s about understanding the ‘why’ behind them. Maybe a running back had fewer yards one game, because they faced a stronger defensive unit, or a wide receiver had a drop in receptions due to a change in quarterback. Hence, it’s crucial to place statistics in their proper game and season context.

Consider some examples in 2023:

L.A. Rams WR Puka Nacua took the NFL, and fantasy owners alike, by storm as a rookie. In his first 4 games as a pro, he was targeted an astounding 52 times, for 39 receptions and 501 yards!In week 5, Nacua’s counterpart, WR Cooper Kupp, returned to the field for the first time that season, due to injury. Nacua didn’t completely fall off at that point, but his 13 target average in the weeks leading up to Kupp’s return, dropped to 8 for the remainder of the season, as Kupp was now taking some of those targets.

In 2022, former Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams came over to the Raiders to join former college teammate and friend, QB Derek Carr with the Las Vegas Raiders. Adams had his typical statistical kind of season with 1,516 yards and 14 TDs. The Raiders decided to part ways with Carr, after the 2022 season, and went with rookie QB Aidan O’Connell in 2023. Adams’ numbers dropped to only 1,144 yards and 8 TDs.

WR Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders

Wide receivers are most susceptible to this, as their position is far and away the most reliant on the cast around them, in all of football. But if you take the time to look even deeper, something like an injured lineman could throw off the stats for all the skill players on the entire team.

It’s vital to note that statistics alone don’t tell the full story. A comprehensive approach to trend analysis includes reviewing game footage, monitoring news about team strategies, and even considering weather conditions that may have influenced past games. This multifaceted analysis is what often separates successful fantasy owners from the rest.

Historical Hits and Misses: Learning from the Past

Examining historical trends in fantasy football is about unraveling the stories behind the stat and not just a numbers game. In past seasons, some patterns stand as testaments of strategic mastery while others earn an infamous tag for leading owners astray.

Peering back, we find several instances where trends became palpable guides. While it’s difficult to predict exactly which players will be the statistical leaders each year, there are some definite trends that hold true every year, over the past decade or so. Let’s look at the last few seasons, more specifically.

In 2021, ’22 and ’23, a minimum of 14 QBs were in the top 20 of total fantasy points (TFP) scored for all offensive players, with the 10th ranked QB only scoring a mere 3 fantasy points per game (FP/G) on average, less than the #1 or #2 ranked QB. With 10-12 owners in a league, you can certainly find a serviceable QB a little later in the draft, so use your first 2 rounds for RBs or WRs.

Also in that 3 year span, RBs are slightly out scoring WRs, on average. The top RB has outscored the top WR each year, and the top 5 RBs average roughly 1-2 FP/G more than the top 5 WRs. The same holds true with the top 10 and top 20, respectively. So if you are drafting in the top 5, your odds are better drafting a RB. Regardless of draft position, round 1 and round 2 are for drafting either a RB and a WR, or 2 of the same. Remember, your line up will consist of at least 2 of each, possibly 3, with the flex position. The key to a championship season is to be strong in RBs and WRs.

In 2023, Sam La Porta was the top ranked fantasy TE, but was only ranked #65 among all offensive players. In 2022 & 2021, the top ranked fantasy TE was ranked in the 30s among all offensive players. So, hold off until at least the 4th round to start considering drafting a TE.

Even though there are some trends that hold true, fantasy football history is also dotted with anomalies that leave even the most seasoned owners scratching their heads. There are seasons where a top-tier quarterback’s performance inexplicably plummets. Extraneous factors such as injuries, disruptive team dynamics, or even off the field issues, often lie at the heart of such aberrations. Recognizing that anomalies exist teaches owners that when studying past stats, look at a body of work, and not just one season, or a portion of a season.

Player movement and coaching changes are seismic events in the fantasy landscape. Understanding how such movements historically affected players can be helpful in predicting how they will affect players in the future. For instance, In 2020, the Tampa Bay Bucs acquired QB Tom Brady, dramatically improving the offense. In the following season, WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both had over 1,000 yards receiving.

The N.Y. Jets were hoping for that same kind of production out of their QB when they acquired Aaron Rodgers in 2023. Rodgers was unfortunately injured on the 4th play of the 1st game, and missed the remainder of the season. It’s worth keeping an eye on a guy like WR Garret Wilson to be the benefactor of Rodgers in New York, in 2024.

Applying Insights: Strategy for Future Fantasy Success

We’ve established the importance of studying historical data in fantasy football and how it can reveal significant trends. So how can we integrate these insights into successful strategies?

One essential strategy is to look for patterns in player performance. This involves identifying consistent top performers as well as those who show signs of potential breakout seasons. For example, there are a number of young RBs who I believe are on the verge of a breakout season in 2024, Rachaad White of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, being one of them. In 2022, White’s rookie year, he rushed 129 times for 481 yards, and had 50 receptions for 290 yards. In 2023, he rushed for 990 yards on 272 carries, and had 64 receptions for 549 yards. I see the Bucs continuing to get White his touches, therefore, bolstering his fantasy production even more, in 2024.

Be sure to factor in off-season changes. Player trades, draft picks, and coaching changes can profoundly impact player output. A new offensive coordinator with a pass-heavy history, for instance, could signal increased value for receivers and quarterbacks on that team.

Lastly, keep your strategy flexible throughout the season. Active engagement is critical. Monitor player performances, league trends, and external factors like weather conditions and injuries. Adjust your roster accordingly to maintain a competitive edge.

With a blend of historical analysis along with up to-date informative decision making, you can elevate your fantasy football game. Use the past to inform the present but stay adaptable for an unpredictable future. Good luck, and may your data-driven insights lead you to victory.

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I hope you’ve enjoyed this article and found it to be informative. As always, please feel free to let me know your thoughts and opinions below. Thanks!