SF 49er executives discussing future draft options
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If you’re new to fantasy football, or looking to switch from the snake draft to an auction format, understanding player values is crucial. Unlike a traditional draft where players are picked in a set order, an auction draft levels the playing field by giving each manager a budget to bid on players.
In an auction or salary cap league, robust knowledge of player values is not just helpful, but essential in constructing a winning team. These values change throughout the season, based on numerous factors, like player performance, expectations, and even scarcity at certain positions.
This article isn’t just about giving you a rundown of numbers though. It’s also about equipping you with the know-how to make smart, informed decisions during your draft. So, let’s take a closer look at what determines a player’s worth and how you can apply that knowledge to your next draft.
The fundamentals of auction value calculations is the behind-the-scenes math that shapes player values. We’ll look at what goes into calculating these numbers and how your budget plays a significant role in the drafting strategy. This foundational knowledge is what sets the stage for successful auctions, and that’s exactly what we’re aiming for.
Fundamentals of Auction Value Calculation
In auction or salary cap leagues, your draft strategy all starts with your total budget. Each owner is virtually given the same amount to spend. This is your currency for building your team, so spending wisely is crucial.
The real key to success hinges on a strategy called value-based drafting. Sort of like getting the best return on your investment. It’s not just about nabbing the best players, it’s about getting players who score high above their positional average without breaking the bank. Refrain from the temptation of drafting that top, most expensive, player of the position.
I checked out the dollar value that salary cap leagues are assigning to players at this point in the season, with total budgets of $200. This gives you a good idea of how players are being perceived, and how players with high expectations are overpriced.
Even if Josh Allen scores 23 fantasy points per game for you, is it worth it to spend $32, or16% of your budget on that one player? Possibly, but also consider spending $15, or approximately 7% for say, Justin Fields, who might scores 17 points per game, or even better at $5 for Brock Purdy, only 2.5% of budget, who might score even more than 17 points per game. This will leave you with enough in your budget to fill out other roster spots with strong starters as well.
RB Christian McCaffrey was listed at as high as $71, or 35% of budget, for the 2024 season. This is classic buying a stock while it’s at it’s peak. As good as McCaffrey is, he’s not worth 35% of your entire budget for just one player. 2nd year RB Kyren Williams might even outperform McCaffrey, in fantasy points, at half the cost. I personally really like 3rd year RB Rachaad White at just $26, or 13% of budget.
This holds true to all positions. Drafting Amon-Ra St. Brown for $37, or 18.5% of budget, is a good value compared to drafting Justin Jefferson for $61 or 30.5% budget, simply because St. Brown is capable of scoring comparable fantasy numbers to Jefferson’s, or even better.
These are some examples of how players with high expectations come at a higher cost, while other players with slightly less expectations, who very well could have similar, possibly even better fantasy seasons, can be drafted at a much lower cost.
Contrary to a snake draft, where you are hoping to take the best player available, in an auction draft format, you look for starters who you can draft at a lower cost.
There are various tools at your disposal, from fantasy football calculators to mock auction drafts. These resources give you a simulated marketplace to navigate. They can help you understand a player’s average going rate, which can vary based on your league’s scoring system and the number of teams. Knowing this average helps you discern whether you’re getting a deal or overpaying.
Remember, these calculated values aren’t set in stone. They constantly shift, due to player updates, expert opinions, and trends within your league. So, very much like a stock option, look to find potential studs at a lower value, before they explode onto the scene, and there value becomes much more expensive to be able to acquire him. It’s a numbers game, sure, but it’s also about playing the market smartly. It’s about setting a solid foundation for the strategies we’re about to discuss next.
Strategies for Assessing Player Worth
When you’re gearing up for a fantasy football auction, assigning a dollar value to players is one of your top priorities. It’s crucial to get this right, as it will shape your entire draft strategy. Now, how do we go about this? A combination of historical data, future projections, and your personal assessment all play pivotal roles.
First off, let’s talk about a player’s track record. Leading up to a draft, I’ll research into past performance stats like: total points scored, consistency, and games played. These numbers can give you a solid baseline.
Also consider their team’s offensive strategy, any changes in coaching staff, or shifts in team rosters that could impact their future contributions.
We also need to weigh the injury history of players. In my example above, Christian McCaffrey was valued at 35% of your total budget. In both 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey’s season was cut significantly short due to injury. So he is the poster boy of high risk-high reward kind of player. I suggest opting for reliability when it comes to spending big bucks. It might be tempting to go after recently injured stars with upside, but be mindful of the gamble you’re taking.
Supply and demand is another factor that often gets overlooked. If it’s a thin year for quality tight ends, for instance, their value might inflate due to increased demand.
So here’s the strategy I like to leverage: have a clear view of a player’s past performance, but also keep an eye on the horizon for their potential and circumstances that may boost or hinder their on-field production. Assess their health, understand the makeup of your league, and account for positional scarcity.
Adapting Your Bidding Strategy During the Auction
Make sure you have room for flexibility when it comes to bidding in fantasy football auctions. You’re going to find out that even the best-laid plans may need quick adjustments as the auction unfolds.
Deciphering the strategies of your fellow league members can be an important element to your draft strategy, giving you a slight edge over the competition. Look for trends to unfold like: are certain positions being overvalued, or is there a run on a particular tier of players? Use this information to your advantage.
Finally, after the auction finishes, conduct a thorough post-auction analysis. How does your team stack up? Do you have cap room, or are there players you can dump, when that player arises out of seemingly no where in week two, and you’re hoping to pick him up off the waiver wire?
As always, I’d love to hear your opinion on this article. Do you have some strategies I have overlooked. Let me know about it! Thanks!