Jim Harbaugh, hired by the Los Angeles Chargers prior the the 2024 season, will look to take the bolts all the way to the Super Bowl.
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I’m going to kick things off by addressing the elephant in the room: coaching changes. You might wonder, what’s the big deal? Here’s the thing: whenever an NFL team decides to shuffle its coaching staff, it doesn’t only change the team’s dynamics, but it can also send ripples through the world of fantasy football.
A fresh coaching regime brings with it new strategies, play styles, and culture. These changes can significantly influence how a player performs on the field, which, in turn, affects their fantasy value. Whether it’s a head coach with a defensive mindset or an offensive coordinator known for aggressive play-calling, each coaching decision has the potential to make or break your fantasy season.
It’s not just about considering the stars of the game. Rookies and emerging talents can either flourish or falter under new guidance. If you’re keen on making informed fantasy picks, you’re going to want to keep close tabs on these developments.
Before you start planning your fantasy roster prospects for the 2024 season, it’s important to understand the recent changes in the coaching landscape. There have been quite a few headline-grabbing moves lately, and I’ll guide you through what they could mean for your fantasy teams. By analyzing data and outcomes from previous seasons, we’ll get a clearer picture of the kind of impact these coaching changes might have.
If you want to stay ahead of the game in fantasy football, understanding the philosophy of each NFL team is critical. Don’t worry if it seems very overwhelming trying to know how 32 NFL teams plan on running their offense in 2024. I’m here to help you sift through the overload of information, and focus on the details that truly matter.
Analyzing the Fantasy Impact of Offensive Coaching Changes
The Atlanta Falcons wasted no time hiring former Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator, Raheem Morris, as there new head coach.
Let’s take a look at what happens when a team gets a new offensive coordinator or head coach with a focus on offense. It’s not just about a fresh face on the sidelines; it’s about new philosophies and ideas, potentially shifting how players are involved.
When you’re trying to figure out how these changes will impact your fantasy football team, you’ll want to consider several factors. For example, some coaches prefer a run-heavy approach, while others might air the ball out with a pass-happy offense. These preferences can massively change the fantasy value of quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers and tight ends, on the team.
When Mike McDaniel took over as head coach for the Miami Dolphins in 2022, he completely changed the offense, which helped them become a top 10 offense for the first time since 1995. He revived a career in QB Tua Tagovailoa, who was being considered by some, a bust, after 2 seasons of not quite playing up to expectations. In the 2022 season, Tagovailoa led the league in passer rating, throwing for 3,548 yards and 25 TDs. Several other players had career high seasons. Newly acquired WR Tyreek Hill exploded for 1,710 yards on 119 receptions and 7 TDs, an NFL record for player’s first season with a new team. The Dolphins became the fantasy football darlings.
As I’ve said before, statistics of old can help predict the future. I’ve crunched some numbers on offenses before and after coaching changes, and the data doesn’t lie. Certain play-callers have a Midas touch for fantasy scoring, though it’s not all about the touchdowns. We’ve got to look at factors like increased snap counts and target shares too.
If you’re looking for hidden gems, keep an eye on players who might thrive under a new scheme. A change in the coaching staff could mean a previously underutilized talent gains a larger role of an offense – turning a late-round pick into fantasy gold.
So, as we consider the ripple effects of these offensive game plans, we can also take a look on the other side of the ball, the defense. New defensive strategies not only impact in-game outcomes, but fantasy football values as well. How does time of possession, turnovers, and sacks play into the fantasy value of a defense? Some leagues use individual defensive players, opposed to a defense/special teams unit as a whole. If yours does, you especially need to pay attention to who the defensive coordinators are for each team.
Defensive Coaching Changes: An Overlooked Fantasy Element
You’ve poured all your energy into scrutinizing over offensive stats, but haven’t given much thought to the other side of the ball? Defensive coaching changes can actually sway fantasy values significantly. A new defensive minded coach or coordinator can utterly transform a team’s defensive play, influencing not only the points allowed but also their ability to create turnovers or score defensively.
Moreover, the fantasy implications of a defense extend beyond the obvious. Consider time of possession: a strong defense can help the offense by getting quicker stops, thus giving the offense more time and possessions to score themselves. This isn’t just about the number of sacks or interceptions; it’s about how a robust defense can keep the other team off the field, giving your fantasy offense more opportunities to rack up fantasy points.
Looking back at recent seasons, we see patterns in how new defensive philosophies can reshape fantasy landscapes. When a team’s defense improves, it unexpectedly benefits certain positions on offense through better field position and momentum. On the flip side, a struggling defense might force an offense to play catch-up, leading to more aggressive, pass-heavy attack, which can be great for quarterbacks and receivers, but can be a downer for your running backs like Derick Henry, who don’t catch a lot of passes out of the backfield.
For those who play in Individual Defensive Player (IDP) formats, defensive coordinator changes can make or break a player’s fantasy value. A shift in defense schematics can effect defensive lineman getting to the quarterback, or secondary players getting interceptions. A defensive team that can shut down one aspect of an offense, (either running the ball, or passing) often create more turnovers, by forcing the offense into more difficult situations. It’s crucial to keep tabs on these alterations because they can open up new fantasy darlings or even signal the downturn of established stalwarts.
Making Smart Fantasy Decisions Amidst Coaching Changes
I’m here to help you with integrating coaching change analyses into your fantasy strategy. It’s not just about the players; coaching changes can dictate the pace and strategy of the game, impacting your fantasy player’s value.
Let’s start with your draft. Factor in new coaching when projecting player performance. An offensive-minded coach could boost quarterback and receiver stats, while a defensive hire might lead to low-scoring games, influencing your preference for certain positions.
Throughout the season, stay alert. Coaches adjust, and so should your fantasy lineup. Keep an eye on how players respond to new systems over the first few weeks. Is the Offense not clicking? That may be a time to trade or bench a player not putting up those fantasy numbers you were hoping for.
Different expert analysis are your friends. Use them to get insights into the new coaching staff’s philosophies and player roles.
Don’t fall into the trap of reacting too hastily, though, especially with trades or even dropping a player. Players have a bad game or two, and bounce back in a big way later on, all the time. Give it some time to develop and play out.
Remember, real in-game team success doesn’t always translate to fantasy points. Focus on how the coaching changes might alter game plans, player usage, and fantasy scoring, opposed to win-loss records.
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I hope you’ve gained some insight with this article. As always, I’d love to hear your opinion as to why you agree or disagree with any of it. Feel free to leave a note below. Thanks!